Weinstein stage analysis
What it measures¶
Stan Weinstein described every share as moving through four stages, read from its 30-week moving average — the average of the last 30 weekly closes — on weekly bars only:
- Stage 1 — basing: the average flattens and the price moves sideways around it.
- Stage 2 — advancing: the price is above a rising average.
- Stage 3 — top: the average flattens under a choppy price.
- Stage 4 — declining: the price is below a falling average.
The average counts as rising when it is at least 0.5% higher than four weeks earlier, and falling when it is at least 0.5% lower; in between it is flat. Weinstein never wrote these numbers down; the 0.5% band, and the ±5% band the page uses to call a price "near" the line in Stage 1, are this product's own, and the page says so.
Why it is on the page¶
It is the backbone of the Technical page's trend panel and the label of the Price & timing strip's Trend tile, whose first vote is the Stage 2 test. Weekly bars are used on purpose: the stages describe the cycle of months that matters to a long-term owner, and daily bars would bring back the noise the weekly view removes. Two of Weinstein's rules are quoted on the page, attributed and enforced nowhere: never to open a position in Stage 4 however low the price looks, and to place a protective exit under the 30-week line.
Thresholds, their source and the population they were fitted on¶
| Stage | Price against the line | The line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 — basing | near it, crossing back and forth | flat |
| 2 — advancing | above | rising |
| 3 — top | near it, after a rise | flat, after rising |
| 4 — declining | below | falling |
- Source: Stan Weinstein, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets (1988).
- Fitted on: no sample by the author. An independent 2026 working paper on S&P 500 companies' weeks, 1992–2026, found only Stage 2 weeks earning more than the market, and a full stage system no better than a single moving-average rule.
- Evidence grade: working paper (the stages); practitioner convention (the bands).
A worked example¶
On weekly bars to 23 October 2026: Apple's weekly close was 12.5% above a 30-week line that rose 4.0% in four weeks — Stage 2 — advancing. Honeywell International's was 2.7% below a line that fell 1.5% — Stage 4 — declining.
What “No verdict” means here¶
The stage carries no verdict word; it is a label. It needs 34 weekly bars (30 for the average and 4 for its slope); with fewer, the page names what is missing and the Trend tile reads No verdict — fewer than 34 weekly bars.
What the verdict is and is not¶
The stage describes where the price sits in its own cycle against one moving average. It does not say how long a stage will last; prices move between stages without warning. It is not an instruction to trade the shares.