ROC — Rate of Change
What it measures¶
The Rate of Change is the percentage change in the price over a stated number of sessions: close today ÷ close n sessions ago − 1. The Technical page shows a ladder of four windows — 63, 126, 189 and 252 sessions, roughly three, six, nine and twelve months of trading.
Why it is on the page¶
It is the plainest measure of momentum: a positive ROC means the price is higher than it was that many sessions ago. Reading the four windows together shows whether a move is recent or long-standing. The Price & timing strip's Momentum tile uses a close relative: the twelve-month return skipping the latest month.
Thresholds, their source and the population they were fitted on¶
ROC has no published zones; its sign and size are the whole reading. Research on momentum found the sign of the past year's return informative about the following month across many markets (Moskowitz, Ooi and Pedersen, 2012, 58 futures contracts, 1985–2009) — the finding the strip's M1 vote rests on.
- Fitted on: no population for the ROC itself — a measurement.
- Evidence grade: not graded; the momentum effect it measures is peer-reviewed and replicated.
A worked example¶
An illustration, not a stored figure: a share that closed at 80 a year ago and at 92 today has a 252-session ROC of +15%; if it closed at 100 three months ago, its 63-session ROC is −8% — up over the year, down over the quarter.
As the strip computed it on 23 October 2026, Apple's twelve-month return to a month earlier was +29.4% and Honeywell International's −2.9%.
What “No verdict” means here¶
ROC carries no verdict and no vote. A window reads insufficient data when fewer bars are stored than the window needs — a share listed eight months ago has no 252-session ROC.
What the verdict is and is not¶
The figure describes how far the price has moved over a window. It is not a forecast and not an instruction to trade the shares.